Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts

Weak December sales show shoppers under pressure






(Reuters) – Some major U.S. retailers had a tough December, with chains like Target and Family Dollar feeling the pinch as consumers were cautious in their holiday spending.


The economy took a toll on shoppers in the most important quarter of the year for retailers. The holiday season was never expected to be stellar, but even the single-digit growth anticipated by chains and analysts came under pressure as Superstorm Sandy, the ever-present headlines about the “fiscal cliff” and the Connecticut school shootings affected consumers’ moods.






“The consumers’ confidence is off a bit, and I don’t think you can point to a single individual thing. It’s a culmination of things that hit their psyche,” said Madison Riley, managing director of retail consulting firm Kurt Salmon.


Among the chains reporting December sales at stores open at least a year on Thursday, Costco Wholesale Corp stood out with growth that topped expectations. Limited Brands Inc’s sales rose less than anticipated, marking a rare miss for the owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain.


Target Corp’s same-store sales were essentially flat, while analysts anticipated a 0.8 percent increase, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.


Target said fourth-quarter earnings should meet or somewhat exceed the low end of its forecast. It said the number of transactions at existing stores slipped in the quarter, while the average transaction size increased. Food was its best seller.


Overall, analysts looked for 3.3 percent same-store sales growth for December across 17 chains, down from 4.2 percent growth in December 2011, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.


Chains also had a somewhat rough November, with same-store sales up a disappointing 1.6 percent.


Still, Kurt Salmon’s Riley predicted that if the upcoming debt ceiling debate goes better than the Washington wrangling to avoid the cliff, there could be a bigger uptick in consumer spending in 2013.


HITS AND MISSES


Macy’s Inc’s same-store sales were up 4.1 percent, just above the 4 percent analysts expected. But the department store chain lowered its fourth-quarter sales and profit forecasts because the rate of growth in November and December was “somewhat” less than it expected.


Family Dollar Stores Inc‘s same-store sales rose about 2.5 percent in December after increasing 6.6 percent in the preceding quarter.


“The holiday selling season proved to be more challenging than we expected as customers faced increasing financial uncertainty,” said Family Dollar Chairman and Chief Executive Howard Levine.


Limited’s same-store sales rose 3 percent versus expectations of a 4.5 percent increase, hurt by flat results at its Victoria’s Secret chain. Limited said its merchandise profit margin came in below its own forecast.


Wet Seal Inc said it expects a fourth-quarter loss at or near the bottom of its prior forecast. Wet Seal, which caters to teens, said same-store sales fell 9.7 percent. Analysts predicted the chain would have the weakest sales of any of the 17 chains reporting, but only anticipated a 5 percent decline.


Costco posted a 9 percent rise in December same-store sales, topping estimates for a 6.5 percent increase, boosted by an additional sales day in the reporting period. Higher fuel prices and a weaker dollar also helped.


(Reporting by Jessica Wohl in Chicago; Additional reporting by Phil Wahba in New York and Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Jeffrey Benkoe)


Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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UK assumes presidency of G8 group







The UK is assuming its year-long presidency of the G8 group of nations.






The presidency – which rotates through the G8 members – means it will host the annual leaders’ summit and choose the global priorities that are discussed.


June’s summit is to be held at Lough Erne, in County Fermanagh, while topics discussed will include tax havens.


The G8 is made up countries who have, historically, been the richest in the world – France, the US, Russia, Japan, Germany, Italy, Canada and the UK.


As prime minister of the presidency holding nation, David Cameron has said he wants to focus on combating trade protectionism, cracking down on tax havens and promoting greater government transparency.


These topics will be discussed in ministerial meetings ahead of the summit along with urgent issues like the crisis in Syria.


Although G8 summits are renowned for fine communiques, the group increasingly suffers from a credibility problem – some of the world’s largest economies like China, India and Brazil are not members, says BBC world affairs correspondent Emily Buchanan.


Our correspondent also adds that organisers will at least be hoping the June summit will be trouble-free.


The last time the UK was the host in 2005, in Gleneagles, more than 200,000 people marched against world poverty.


The proceedings were then overshadowed by the 7/7 bus and underground bombings in London.


Mr Cameron announced in November that the G8 summit would be held at the Lough Erne golf resort near Enniskillen.


It is the first time an event of this size has been held in Northern Ireland.


Speaking at the time, the prime minister said: “I want the world to see just what a fantastic place Northern Ireland is – a great place for business, a great place for investment, a place with an incredibly educated and trained workforce ready to work for international business.


BBC News – Business





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Commissions banned on new sales







Financial advisers and sales staff can no longer be paid commissions by the firms whose policies they are selling.






New rules, aimed at eradicating the long-standing practice, are being imposed by the Financial Services Authority (FSA) from now.


The aim is to stop policies – such as private pensions and investments – being mis-sold by sales staff, motivated by commission payments.


Instead, customers must be quoted up-front fees, and be told about charges.


Sales staff or financial advisers will also have to state if they are really independent, or restricted to just selling the policies of particular financial groups.


The reforms form part of a series of changes in the financial services industry called the Retail Distribution Review, and which were first proposed by the FSA back in early 2010.


Linda Woodall at the FSA said: “The changes will improve customer confidence – we want people to feel that they are getting a service from their financial adviser that is relevant to their circumstances and in their best interests.


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote


d86d0   65017715 tadcaster Commissions banned on new sales


The danger here is that quality financial advice becomes something only for the wealthy”



End Quote Keith Tadhunter Independent Financial Adviser


“These changes are about making the cost of advice clearer, where else would you buy something without knowing in advance how much it costs?


“Customers will now know how much advice is costing them, the service that they are receiving and be reassured that their adviser is qualified.”


Mis-selling scandals


The changes should ensure that independent financial advisers no longer receive payment for their advice by taking a regular cut of their clients funds via commission payments, something the clients may not be aware of at all.


The new policy will apply to the sale of investments such as pensions, annuities and unit trusts, but not to some mortgages and insurance policies.


Alan Higham, an expert on annuities – a pension income for life – believes that there is also a loophole with sales of annuities.


He said that “limited pension advice” – which provides guidance, quotes and explains terms and accounts for about a third of annuity sales – is not covered by the new rules.


This is because the client has made the decision without recommended pension advice from an adviser. If anything is wrong with the choice, then it is the client’s responsibility, rather than the adviser’s.


Commission-driven sales are thought to have been at the heart of the huge mis-selling scandals of the past few decades, affecting the sale of endowment policies, personal pensions and most recently payment protection insurance (PPI).


Even apart from those scandals, the FSA estimated in 2010 that mis-selling in general was costing UK financial consumers about half a billion pounds a year.


Continue reading the main story

Suggested questions to IFAs


  • How much will your advice cost me and how is this calculated?

  • Can you explain the different ways I can pay for advice?

  • Can you explain what products you can advise me on and any areas you cannot help me with?

  • How often will you review my investments?

  • Can you show me proof that you are qualified to give advice?

Source: Financial Services Authority



A recent survey for the FSA found that 17% of adults currently take advice from a professional financial adviser and another 32% would consider doing so.


But a third of the respondents thought, wrongly, that the advice was free and that they did not have to pay a charge.


‘Danger’


Financial advisers have said that some operators in their industry have given it a bad name. However, some argue that the change in the rules could create issues for those who may not actively seek financial products, such as a pension.


“The danger here is that quality financial advice becomes something only for the wealthy, when in reality, most people need it to some degree – as poor rates of saving across the population only go to show,” said Keith Tadhunter, an independent financial adviser at Future Financial in Bath.


But Martin Wheatley, the chief executive designate of the Financial Conduct Authority, said that – although there was a savings gap in the UK – people had not trusted financial services.


“This is part of getting trust back into finance,” he said.


He expected the industry to change, with many more options explained through websites for people looking to save or invest in the long-term.


The new policies will also stop, from the end of 2013, the practice of businesses such as fund supermarkets or online discount stockbrokers accepting payments from some of the investment funds whose policies they are selling.


This is also thought to lead to biased sales, which may not be in the best interests of private investors.


Part of these payments has sometimes found its way back to the personal investor in the form of a cash rebate, but they are also used to cross-subsidise the provision of other services, such as stock and shares Isas.


BBC News – Business





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We’re Paying Off Our Debts, At Least At Home






9fb37  chris farrell Were Paying Off Our Debts, At Least At Home


Had it with the so-called fiscal cliff? Wondering what comes next now that Republicans pulled the plug on House Speaker John Boehner’s Plan B? Take a break from the frenzy in Washington and ignore for the moment the federal government’s red ink. Focus instead on another balance sheet that isn’t getting enough attention: The household balance sheet. Over the past five turbulent years, despite high unemployment rates and falling median income, American households have reduced their debts and shored up their balance sheets. “The aggregate numbers show that households are back to being in pretty good shape,” says James W. Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. Adds Susan Lund, partner at the McKinsey Global Institute: “Households continue to make very good progress at deleveraging.”






Case in point: the drop in the financial obligations ratio. It measures the ratio of household debt payments to disposable personal income. The obligation side of the ledger includes mortgage and consumer debt payments, automobile leases, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners insurance, and property taxes. In other words, the gauge captures much of the typical household’s monthly outlay for debts. The ratio hit a record high of 18.88 in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the Federal Reserve. In the third quarter of this year it had dropped to 15.74, about the level of the early 1980s. (The series starts in 1980.) The reduced strain on household financial resources reflects the impact of low interest rates and less debt.


To be sure, about two-thirds of the gain in household balance sheets has come through mortgage foreclosures and credit-card defaults. Nevertheless, household debt as a share of gross domestic product is currently at 83 percent, far below its peak of 97 percent of GDP in 2008. At the current pace of deleveraging, households could return to their long-term borrowing trend (1950 to 2000) by the second half of 2013, calculates McKinsey’s Lund.


Households should feel wealthier next year. Their net worth plunged a record-setting 25 percent during the Great Recession. The latest readings have household net worth a mere 2 percentage points shy of reversing the loss. That figure should improve with housing market sales and prices showing definite signs of life, especially with the drag from foreclosures lessening. Yes, the current foreclosure pipeline remains full, but the future looks less dire. The rate of mortgages delinquent by 90 days or more—mortgages clearly heading toward foreclosure—fell to 3.5 percent in September 2012, according to the latest data from Foreclosure-Response.org, a joint venture between Local Initiatives Support Corp., the Urban Institute, and the Center for Housing Policy. The number is sharply lower than the December 2009 high of 5.5 percent,


The deleveraging story goes far beyond the household. Corporate America is flush with cash, and the sector has slightly reduced its debt levels. The beleaguered financial services industry has taken far more draconian actions to create a healthier margin of safety.


Such aggressive balance-sheet cleansing by the household and business sectors isn’t all good. By saving more, they are spending less, reducing demand for goods and services. That could have doomed the economy to a severe downturn if not for the big offsetting budget deficits run by the federal government.


Now even the federal government is poised to make progress. Say what? You wouldn’t know it for all the talk of fiscal crisis in Washington, yet the federal deficit as a share of GDP is shrinking as the economy recovers. Specifically, the government deficit-to-GDP ratio reached 10.4 percent of nominal GD during the Great Recession. Despite the economy expanding at a tepid 2 percent average rate, the deficit-to-GDP ratio has shrunk to 6.9 percent. Even if the economy continues to expand at a slow 2 percent pace, says Paulson, it’s likely the government debt-to-GDP ratio will peak over the next 12 to 24 months. The odds favor the lower band of that range estimate if the pace of growth picks up. “We may be at the stage where if we follow historic trends, you see government debt on a path to decline,” says Lund. Paulsen is even more optimistic: “Over the next three years the fiscal issue will fade.”


Got that, Washington? The underlying dynamics of the economy are screaming on-the-mend, including a job market that’s slowly improving, a housing market with a pulse, and healthier private sector balance sheets. Economic optimism would be the watchword of the New Year if it weren’t for the damaging drama of the fiscal cliff. Main Street has done its part.


Everyone is deeply frustrated, but considering the political blunders of recent weeks, maybe the best thing Washington can do is calm down. Stop playing political Armageddon. Realize that grand bargains can do more economic harm than fiscal good. If you must, embrace some form of face-saving, kick-the-can-down the-road compromise. Thanks to the underappreciated health in household balance sheets, the political equivalent of doing nothing will let the economy grow and deleveraging to continue. Indeed, the surprise of 2013 could be how rapid the short-term improvement in the fiscal balance sheet turns out to be.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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‘Boxing Day record’ for web retail












Record numbers visited UK retail websites on Boxing Day, with analysts suggesting shoppers are also using the internet to identify bargains.


Information service Experian said UK consumers made 113 million visits to retailers’ websites during 26 December.


High Streets are expected to be busy again for the post-Christmas sales, with large department stores such as John Lewis throwing open their doors.


Some big name retailers started their online sales on Christmas Day.


UK internet users made 84 million visits to retail websites on Christmas Eve and 107 million visits on Christmas Day, up 86% and 71% respectively compared to the same days in December 2011, according to Experian.


“The UK sales creep continues to advance so that now the post-Christmas sales are starting before Christmas,” said James Murray, digital insight manager at Experian.


“Five years ago we called it the January sales, before it became the Boxing Day sales, now retailers have to call it the winter sales as discounting starts earlier to encourage higher spending.”


Retail consultants have said that many people heading out to the shops will have already browsed online to choose the items they want.


Activity


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote



[The internet] has an influence on the High Street with shoppers doing more research beforehand”



End Quote Matt Piner Founder, Conlumino


The squeeze on family finances is likely to keep the lid on retail sales, especially on big ticket items.


A lack of activity in the housing market is also reducing demand for some household items that might have been replaced as people move home.


However, some positive news in employment levels means that some stores could still record a decent level of sales in the significant post-Christmas sales period.


The first indications of the level of activity in the post-Christmas sales, the footfall figures from Experian, will be published later.


Online research


The growth of the internet means that the peak in sales might already have taken place.


Mr Murray, of Experian, said that 26 December was traditionally the single biggest shopping day of the year online.


And now, shoppers are using digital devices such as tablets and smartphones to search for bargains – then only travel to those specific shops to buy those items.


“The internet has been a huge factor in retail all year, and has an influence on the High Street with shoppers doing more research beforehand,” said Matt Piner, founder of retail research agency Conlumino.


He said items such as laptops and furniture in particular were identified by shoppers during online browsing, rather than in a store.


‘Cautious’


John Lewis, which starts its sale in department stores on Thursday, said it had seen notable activity during its online clearance sale. That started at 1700GMT on 24 December.


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote



UK retailing is set for another year of tough trading”



End Quote Maureen Hinton Verdict


On Christmas Day, the department store said online sales peaked late in the evening. Items that proved popular included electrical items, sheets and pillowcases, luxury towels and candles.


Analysts said the departure of some high-profile names from the High Street had helped some of the remaining department stores. However, many had targeted “cautious” shoppers with discounts in the run-up to Christmas, according to Rahul Sharma, of Neev Capital, a retail consultancy.


He said that shoppers were offered discounts of 20% to 30% in the build up to Christmas, to tempt them into buying items for themselves, as well as presents.


This meant that clearance sales might be muted this year, with many of the items that stores wanted to shift already having been sold.


Predictions


Analysts have suggested that DIY and gardening will see the strongest performance in the retail sector in 2013, compared with 2012.


Poor weather in the past 12 months meant that sales have been low. This, together with homeowners improving homes ready to go on the market, should lead to a rebound in the coming year, according to Verdict and SAS UK.


The groups predicted that spending on food was likely to raise roughly in line with inflation.


However, they say that music and video spending will be hit the hardest, with a predicted 6.3% fall compared with 2012, owing to online streaming and cheaper internet prices.


The amount people spent online was expected to account for 12% of total retail spending, they added.


“UK retailing is set for another year of tough trading,” said Maureen Hinton, of Verdict.


BBC News – Business





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Tube drivers in Boxing Day strike









BBC News spoke to commuters at Edgware Road station in London, some branding the strike “really inconvenient”



A number of London Underground drivers have gone on strike in a long-running row over bank holiday pay.


Transport for London (TfL) says there is likely to be “significant disruption” to Tube services, and more buses will be laid on.


Members of the Aslef union have walked out for 24 hours after voting 9-1 in favour of strike action.


TfL said limited services were running on the Tube, although there are some services running on all lines.


It urged passengers to check before travelling. There are no services on London Overground.


TfL said the Bakerloo, Central and Victoria lines were running services through central London.


The District, Hammersmith & City, Circle, Metropolitan, Northern and Jubilee lines are running limited services.


The Piccadilly line is operating a shuttle service between Heathrow terminals and Hammersmith, and between Arnos Grove and Cockfosters.


The Docklands Light Railway is also operating, except between Canning Town and Beckton and between Shadwell and Bank.


‘Scandalous actions’


Tfl said services could vary throughout the day depending on the resources available.


It said there would be extra buses for shoppers heading for the West End and for the Westfield shopping centres in east and west London.


Otherwise, the capital’s 700 bus routes will operate a Sunday service.


The congestion charge for vehicles entering central London does not apply during the festive period and there are no on-street parking charges in Westminster.


It is the third successive walkout by Tube drivers on what is the first day of the post-Christmas sales.


Howard Collins, London Underground’s chief operating officer, criticised the union for demanding to be paid “twice for the same work”.


“The scandalous actions of the Aslef leadership are an attempt to hold Londoners to ransom, and demonstrate a wholesale disregard for our customers,” he said.


“We will be running as many services as possible, supported by London’s 700 bus routes, but there will be disruption.”


The disruption, which led to the Premier League derby between Arsenal and West Ham United being postponed, is due to continue with two further walkouts on the last two Fridays in January.


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BBC News – Business





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Monti ‘available to lead Italy’







Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti says he is not siding for now with any party in upcoming elections, but remains available to head a future government.






Mr Monti said he was ready to lead any coalition committed to his reforms.


The caretaker prime minister said he was unable to accept an offer from former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to lead a centrist coalition.


Elections are to be held in February. Mr Monti resigned after Mr Berlusconi’s party withdrew its support.


Mr Monti was nominated as technocratic prime minister in November 2011, after Mr Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition government fell amidst a financial and economic crisis.


Speaking at a news conference in Rome, Mr Monti urged Italian parties not to destroy what he said was his government’s achievement in saving Italy from that crisis.


“That financial emergency has been overcome,” he said. “Italians can once again hold their heads high as citizens of Europe.”


Keeping options open


Asked repeatedly if he was going to run in the 24-25 February election, Mr Monti said he cared more about policies than about the personalities involved in the election.


“I’m not siding with anyone – I’d like parties and social forces to side with ideas,” he said.


But he added: “To the forces that show convinced and credible adherence to the Monti agenda, I would be ready to give my advice, my encouragement and if necessary leadership,” he said.


“I would also be ready to assume one day, if required by circumstances, the responsibilities that would be entrusted to me by the parliament.”


The BBC’s David Willey says Mr Monti, whose possible role in February’s election has been the subject of intense speculation in Italy, is playing his cards close to his chest – whilst keeping his options open.


Mr Monti, 69, is an economist and former EU commissioner who first served as a minister under Mr Berlusconi in 1994.


His government has been praised for its initial reforms and for calming financial markets, though much of its reform agenda has been watered down or blocked.


On Sunday, he appealed to parties to push through further reforms of Italy’s labour market and its institutions.


He also criticised Mr Berlusconi for recently attacking the technocratic government, despite having previously praised it.


“I struggle to follow his line of thought,” Mr Monti said.


Mr Berlusconi, 76, has been mired in a series of sexual and financial scandals.


He made conflicting statements about whether he would remain in politics before launching into his sixth general election campaign.


Current polls suggest the centre-left Democratic Party led by Pier Luigi Bersani would win the most votes in a general election.


BBC News – Business





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Markets steady amid Xmas exodus, US budget doubts






LONDON (AP) — Financial markets were largely steady in holiday-thinned trading Monday though concerns remain over the progress of U.S. budget discussions and the future of the economic reform program in Italy.


For weeks, the discussions between the White House and Congress over a budget deal have been the main driver in markets. If a deal isn’t agreed to by the start of 2013, automatic spending cuts and tax increases worth hundreds of billions of dollars will be imposed — which many economists think could push the U.S. economy back into recession.






The prevailing view has been that a deal would be agreed to in time but as the deadline nears there are growing doubts over whether the U.S. will be able to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff.”


“The reality is given that the U.S. government is now closed for the holiday break the likelihood of anything other than soothing procrastination is highly unlikely much before the Jan. 1 deadline,” said Michael Hewson, senior market analyst at CMC Markets.


Most markets across Europe were only open for half a day and will only re-open again on Thursday. German markets, and others, were closed for Christmas Eve.


Among those that were open, Britain’s FTSE 100 index of leading British shares closed up 0.2 percent at 5,954.18 while the CAC-40 in France was down an equivalent rate at 3,652.61.


Wall Street was poised for falls at the open in what will also be a holiday-shortened trading day — both Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures were down 0.3 percent.


Doubts over the progress of discussions prompted a fairly sizeable sell-off last Friday though many analysts still think there will be agreement on some sort of short-term measures.


“Even if this stopgap measure is implemented it may not be enough to prevent unwanted volatility in equity markets going into 2013 as investors try and assess the adverse impact on the U.S. economy,” said Neil MacKinnon, global macro strategist at VTB Capital.


As well as monitoring developments in the U.S. over the coming days, investors will be keeping a close watch on what’s going on in Italy ahead of a general election in February.


Over the weekend, outgoing Prime Minister Mario Monti indicated that he would be willing to return to the role if pro-reform parties back him.


Over the past year or so, Monti and his technocratic government have won plaudits in the markets for their economic reforms and efforts to get a grip on the country’s borrowing. Italy has the second-highest debt burden among the 17 EU countries that use the euro. Only Greece’s is higher.


Earlier in Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, closed up 0.1 percent at 22,531.51 while South Korea’s Kospi rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,981.82. Japanese markets were closed for the Emperor’s birthday holiday.


Other financial markets were subdued too. In the currency markets, the euro was up 0.2 percent at $ 1.3224 while the benchmark New York oil price was down 16 cents at $ 88.50 a barrel.


Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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China and India: The $10 Trillion Engine of Future U.S. Growth






My friend and colleague Michael J. Silverstein, writing in this space in late October, mentioned that the most dangerous thing about China is America’s misguided attitude toward the country. In short, we appear to be afraid of China’s success.


The U.S. has never before run from a challenge. This is the wrong time to start.






As Silverstein and his co-authors—Carol Liao, David Michael, and Abheek Singhi—point out in their new book, The $ 10 Trillion Prize, one of the reasons many Americans feel threatened by China is they don’t know a lot about the country. What they do “know,” by and large, is what they’ve been told by politicians and others who accuse China of stealing U.S. jobs.


Yes, many low-skill, low-wage U.S. jobs have moved elsewhere, in many cases to China. Yes, many low-cost, mass-produced products that used to be made here are now being made there, and in other low-cost countries, such as India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam. And, yes, many of those jobs will never come back.


But as China and the other developing countries grow, they also become potential customers for U.S. goods and services, from corn and soybeans to automobiles, commercial jetliners, heavy machinery, construction and farm equipment, and banking, investment, and insurance services, to name just a few.


It wasn’t that long ago that the prevailing American vision of the Middle Kingdom was that of millions of mindless peasants marching in automaton-like lockstep to the orders of the party bosses. They led lives of drudgery, on collective farms, toiling for mere survival. Everybody dressed like Chairman Mao. Dissent was met with tanks. And it wasn’t that long ago that that may have been accurate in some respects.


But China today, as Silverstein and his co-authors make clear, is a booming multiclass society with hundreds of millions of people who want nothing more than their own version of the American Dream: a nice home, a quality car, a good education for their children, appliances and conveniences, better health care, stylish clothes, more time for travel and leisure. In short: a better life for the next generation than the current generation enjoyed. The same is true in India.


The authors visited with and tell the stories of dozens of Chinese and Indian families and entrepreneurs who are striving for the same things Americans want—and for the first time in their lives, they have the money to get them.


My colleagues have calculated that between 2010 and 2020, Chinese and Indian consumers will spend some $ 64 trillion on goods and services. Chinese consumers will spend approximately $ 41.5 trillion, with annual expenditures reaching more than $ 6 trillion in 2020. Indians will spend $ 22.5 trillion, with annual spending hitting an estimated $ 3.6 trillion by 2020. Combined, they will be spending some $ 10 trillion per year by 2020—more than three times what they spent in 2010.


That’s what U.S. politicians and business leaders should be talking about: the promise of China and India as engines of future U.S. growth. That’s the prize the book is about.


China and India today show the kind of unbridled optimism that used to be the hallmark of America. Many Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs expect their companies to grow by factors of 10 over the next decade.


Rather than fear such growth, Americans should embrace it, wish them well, and make sure our businesses, farms, and factories are prepared to meet their needs.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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He’s 28, and Here to Take Over Your Company






Ryan Morris spent a week steeling himself for the showdown. Then 27 years old, he was in his first campaign as an activist investor, trying to wrest control of a small company named InfuSystem (INFU), which provides and services pumps used in chemotherapy. In the meeting, Morris would confront InfuSystem’s chairman and vice chairman, two men in their 40s, and tell them that as a shareholder, he thought the company was heading in the wrong direction.


Morris is competitive—his high school rowing teammates nicknamed him “Cyborg,” and he took a semester off college to race as a semi-pro cyclist—but face-to-face confrontation wasn’t something he relished. “I like the thrill of the hunt, but not the kill,” he says. To prepare, Morris outlined questions, guessed potential responses, and tried to anticipate what tense “pregnant moments” could arrive. He built his clout by lining up support from InfuSystem’s largest shareholder as well as a veteran activist investor. Morris knew his own looks—he resembles a sandy-haired Mitt Romney—could help mask his youth, and decided he’d wear a tie, much as he hates to.






The company, with just $ 47 million in revenue, was spending too much money, and in the wrong places. In the previous year, InfuSystem’s board and CEO earned more than $ 11 million combined. This was for a company whose stock had lost 40 percent of its value over the previous three years. Morris figured that as a shareholder voice on the board, he could help cut expenses—including the high pay—and, once it was clean enough to sell, reap a return for his own small hedge fund.


On Dec. 13, 2011, he finally sat at a conference table across from the two directors. After 45 minutes of discussion, he still didn’t think his concerns were being acknowledged. So he got to the point: He wanted three board seats.


When an activist investor like Carl Icahn tries to take over a household brand, it plays out on CNBC. Most shareholder struggles occur when little-known investment funds try to take over little-known companies like InfuSystem. Of the more than two dozen activist battles in 2012, most involved companies with a market value under $ 50 million. In the smallest face-off this year, Georgetown Law student Daniel Rudewicz, 29, tried and failed to gain control of a $ 2.2 million company that makes microwave filters.


9cba1  investing activist52  02inline  405b Hes 28, and Here to Take Over Your Company


Many of the fights are being waged by a younger generation of activists, according to Ron Berenblat, Morris’s attorney at Olshan Frome Wolosky. Among the firm’s clients is a 24-year-old about to start his first activist campaign, trying to take over a technology company. Morris’s experience, says Berenblat, puts him “on the new forefront of 30-and-younger activist investors who are ​intelligent, patient, and highly methodical.” After the financial crisis exhausted even the most seasoned investors, young activists like Morris are bringing new energy to the hunt, shining light into dark corners of the market that are often overlooked.
 
 
Growing up in Toronto, Morris dreamed of becoming a nuclear physicist, obsessed with the idea that nuclear fusion could create infinite, clean energy—that was, until his father let him in on some bad news. “Even if you become the best scientist in the world, you will not make fusion happen,” Ryan recalls him warning. “If you want to make something happen, you need to be in charge of capital. It’s the resource allocation that gets things done.”


Morris started reading Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) shareholder letters. To the 12-year-old Morris, it seemed so easy: With hard work and a clear mind, an independent thinker could spot an undervalued company, buy it cheap, and hold on until other investors recognize the company’s true worth. “Something where you can do well while being a loner was kind of appealing,” he says.


Using money from a summer job laying lawn sprinklers, Morris soon bought his first stock, a company that made fuel cells. He kept investing when he moved to upstate New York to study operations research at Cornell University and later as he extended his undergraduate degree into a master’s in engineering. Alongside classes and cycling, Morris worked with fellow student Paul George to found a profitable company called VideoNote that made it easy for Cornell to stream lectures online. As graduation loomed, Morris decided he didn’t want to take a job on Wall Street, where he could earn millions in the algorithm-driven world of quantitative finance. The financial models that drive the market’s split-second trades were “dumb” in Morris’s eyes, George says. “His whole position is take long-term positions on companies and don’t try to trade on noise. You can’t predict anything.”


He still wanted to be an investor, though. In the fall of 2008, with the stock market in freefall, and lots of companies at historic lows, Morris saw an opportunity. By early 2009 he was talking with George about managing his money, with a compelling pitch: “He said, ‘Cast aside your emotions. … People are overreacting, so I can come in and be rational,’ ” George recalls. George handed over some of their payout from VideoNote and a small inheritance, becoming Morris’s first investor. With their combined $ 50,000, Morris opened his fund on Feb. 24, 2009, naming it Meson Capital Partners after a subatomic particle. His timing was perfect: The stock market bottomed in March and has more than doubled since.


1cddb  investing activist52  01inline  405b Hes 28, and Here to Take Over Your Company


Over the coming months, Morris sent some close friends and professors a 10-page letter detailing his value approach, which embodied Buffett’s idea of investing in companies that have strong business prospects and are not simply hot stocks. A few gave him money, and a single question Morris asked of Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger at Wesco Financial’s annual meeting helped him pull in more. He asked whether it’s harder to pursue a “buy and hold” strategy when businesses seem to evolve faster and faster. Ben Claremon, a blogger who circulated a transcript of the meeting, noted next to Morris’s name: “Watch out for this guy: Some very smart people think he is going to be a star fund manager.”


Morris didn’t start out as an activist. At first he looked for sound companies that had been swept up in the market panic and noticed that some small aircraft leasing companies had taken a beating. “If you think of a headline for an investment that involves ‘airlines’ and ‘finance’ you can imagine there was not much competition in buying these stocks,” Morris would write to investors. He invested about 40 percent of his fund in three companies and the stocks soared. By the end of the year, Morris’s fund had gained 753 percent before fees—17 times the return of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index. In his first annual letter, he told his investors this was “embarrassingly far off our target” of beating the S&P by 10 percent annually over three to five years. “This was not a sustainable performance.”


The returns attracted great interest, some of which Morris calls “the wrong kind of attention.” One potential investor asked, “OK, I will get 50 percent a year, right?” Morris says he turned away several of these hot money types. His letters, which laid out his strategies, started making the rounds among well-known value investors and eventually landed in the hands of Whitney Tilson, founder of hedge fund T2 Partners. “There’s this young guy who looks off the beaten path for interesting, misplaced situations,” Tilson says. And those returns? “That catches anyone’s eye.” In 2010, Tilson and Zeke Ashton, founder of Centaur Capital Partners, became seed investors in Morris’s partnership, providing a bit of capital and a regular source of advice.


Morris’s second year didn’t match his first. In the words of his next annual letter, it was “marked by frustration and underperformance.” There were some bright spots when he “coat tailed” the work of other activist investors. One forced a bloated pharmaceutical company to sell itself, and another managed to wring some money for shareholders out of an industrial laser business reorganizing in bankruptcy. Reflecting on the year, Morris told his investors that the success of those activists made him optimistic about his own future, writing, “Hopefully, as we grow in the future, we can be the ones to save the day.”
 
 
“Why did he become an activist investor? Because he got screwed,” George says. In early 2011, Morris invested in a hearing aid provider called HearUSA, which he thought was undervalued after it signed a long-delayed deal with AARP. Then HearUSA’s largest supplier, Siemens (SI), forced the company to file for bankruptcy protection over a contract dispute. Morris says he was caught totally off guard—he’d seen no warning signs in the hundreds of pages of filings he’d read—and sold 80 percent of his shares at a loss.


After reading more documents from the case, Morris decided that HearUSA’s business was sound and that Siemens acted because it was at odds with the company’s management. As HearUSA’s stock fell in the wake of the bankruptcy filing, Morris began buying shares, paying on average a third of what he paid for his original stake. He then joined other investors in persuading the bankruptcy trustee to establish an equity committee to represent shareholders. Morris and the rest of the committee helped negotiate a deal for Siemens to buy HearUSA, avoiding liquidation and doubling Meson’s total investment.


As that foray ended, a HearUSA shareholder tipped Morris off to InfuSystem. The company had a steady, recurring revenue stream. After all, “cancer treatment services are totally economically insensitive,” says Morris. “If Europe crashes, you still need this service.” But that cash flow was obscured by what Morris politely calls “nonessential costs.” In 2010 the board awarded $ 7.2 million in salary, stock, and other compensation to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Sean McDevitt, gave $ 1.3 million to Vice Chairman Pat LaVecchia, and awarded at least $ 400,000 to almost every other member of the board, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings. It let the stock awards vest immediately and had InfuSystem pay the personal income taxes they triggered. That meant InfuSystem’s board earned six times the median compensation for other micro-cap companies, according to data from the National Association of Corporate Directors. Reading the filings, Morris questioned how the board, which included pharmaceutical executives and an astronaut, could approve the largess. “These don’t seem like bad people,” he thought. (Members of the board did not respond to requests for comment for this article.)


Fresh off his experience with HearUSA, Morris thought if he could get a voice on the board, he could help investors. He says he called the largest shareholders and learned they were irked too. That’s when Morris began laying the groundwork for battle. He bought 2 percent of InfuSystem’s shares and persuaded Kleinheinz Capital Partners, the company’s largest shareholder, and veteran small-cap activist Chuck Gillman to join him in an official group of concerned shareholders. On Dec. 6, 2011, Morris filed a form called a Schedule 13D with the SEC, declaring the group controlled 11.4 percent of InfuSystem’s shares and intended to influence the board.


In the face-to-face meeting a week later, Morris says McDevitt and LaVecchia defended the stock awards, explaining that the board wanted to boost the company’s market capitalization so it could move from trading on over-the-counter exchanges to the NYSE Amex. Morris says that when he raised the prospect of joining the board, McDevitt’s face reddened as he sarcastically retorted, “Oh, we’d love to spend more time with you.”


Five days later, Morris learned the board rejected the shareholders’ request for three seats. He scoured InfuSystem’s bylaws and decided to demand a “special meeting,” which management must call within 75 days after a majority of all shareholders demand one. Morris was confident he could get the support he needed, and on Jan. 18, 2012, filed a preliminary proxy statement calling for the special meeting to replace the board.


This is about the time when many shareholder activists would start firing off nasty press releases attacking current management as corrupt or incompetent in an effort to rally shareholder support. Such battles can escalate quickly and end up in court. Morris says, “as much as I love lawyers, I don’t really love paying them.” Instead, he issued what he calls “gentlemanly” press releases that announced his SEC filings.


When Morris called shareholders, some said, “Thank God you’re here.” Others were skeptical. How did they know that Morris wouldn’t raid the company for himself? “I was like, ‘I’m 27. I would be ending my career right now if I was going to do that,’ ” he recalls. By March 5, Morris’s group had more than the 50 percent support needed. The InfuSystem board now had until May 7 to call the special meeting.


McDevitt and the board began negotiating. In the final deal, McDevitt, LaVecchia, and all but two of the board members were out. “I fired an astronaut,” Morris says now with a slight smile. McDevitt waived the 2 million shares he was entitled to under his employment contract and instead took a $ 1 million payout. “If we had had nasty press releases, there’s no way we would have settled that severance thing,” Morris says. InfuSystem would get a new CEO and seven new board members, with Morris as the chairman, one of the youngest on the NYSE. “I am two months younger than Zuckerberg,” he says. “But he’s about a zillion dollars richer.”
 
 
On a November afternoon in Manhattan, Morris sat at a desk stacked with moving boxes and explained that he was closing InfuSystem’s New York office. InfuSystem had leased the office for McDevitt and a team of financial analysts to use as they looked for other biotech firms to buy. “They had these investment bankers to make acquisitions, but we don’t have capital to do acquisitions,” Morris says.


After the takeover, Morris and the board laid off the New York staff and sublet the midtown office space, saving InfuSystem about $ 1 million a year, Morris estimates. When he visits New York, Morris crashes on George’s couch rather than charge the company for a hotel. These cost-cutting moves helped InfuSystem post its first quarterly profit since 2010 in November. Yet Morris has more work to do—shares are still down since he bought them.


Morris now spends about a third of his time on InfuSystem and the rest on other investments. Knowing he’s not likely to see another market like 2009, he views activism as a way to get a persistent advantage in normal times. “I think now he is struggling to say, How do I apply this? What will allow me to be my own catalyst and allow me to find another edge?” says Ashton. “Not in terms of size of return, but where I have an edge that is somewhat durable.” Chris Cernich, executive director for proxy contest research at Institutional Shareholder Services, has found that companies with an activist investor on the board typically outperform their peer groups by 16.6 percentage points. But activism, with its patience and strategizing and expense, isn’t for most people, and the battles don’t always end well.


In August, Morris saw a different activism project fall apart. He’d tried to take over Pinnacle Airlines, a regional carrier, which later fell into bankruptcy. After a judge denied Morris’s requests for more shareholder input, Morris decided it wasn’t worth appealing the ruling. “Investing isn’t a crusade, it’s about making money,” he says. Pinnacle became the 28-year-old’s biggest loss to date.


Around the same time, a friend who runs another small hedge fund tipped Morris off to Lucas Energy (LEI), a small energy producer with rights to drill on oil-rich properties but not enough capital to get the crude out of the ground. It also had a CEO and co-founder who was “not a great communicator,” Morris says. “I’m being polite here.” After acquiring 11 percent of the company’s shares, Morris flew to Texas to meet the CEO and chairman. He headed back the next day with an invitation to have two seats on the board, with no strings attached. Within three weeks, he and the rest of the board brought on a new CFO, and in December they replaced the CEO.


Morris says he’s getting used to the ups and downs that are part of long-term investing. He works out of a two-bedroom apartment in San Francisco he shares with his “really supportive fiancé,” a blonde Belarussian he met at a coffee shop in Santa Monica. “So that keeps me sane,” he says. Plus: “My investors are very patient with me. I’m very grateful.” Morris now has 33 investors and about $ 15 million under management.


His long-term plan is to “cut my teeth with these small ones that I fix up and sell, and then you can start doing more interesting strategic stuff once you get bigger.” Eventually, he wants to merge companies, change operations, and make the big plays. But to get there, Morris needs more money, and more experience sitting across the table from executives and demanding a seat on a board. It may require a new tie.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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Wall Street ticks lower on “fiscal cliff” stalemate






NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks edged slightly lower on Thursday as investors fretted that a deal on the U.S. budget wouldn’t come as soon as they had hoped after President Barack Obama threatened to veto a controversial Republican plan.


The market barely reacted to a round of strong data, including on gross domestic product growth and housing, suggesting talks to avert the “fiscal cliff,” steep tax hikes and spending cuts due to take effect in 2013, remain the primary focus for markets.






Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner said Wednesday his chamber would pass a proposal that spares many wealthy Americans from tax hikes needed to balance the budget. Obama has threatened to veto the plan if it passes, while some Republicans oppose any deal featuring tax increases.


“The closer we get to the end of the year without a deal, the more optimism is going to evaporate,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing partner at LandColt Capital in New York. “Volatility is going to be extreme until there’s a deal, and the probability of being caught on the downside is much greater than being on the upside.”


While investors have hoped for an agreement soon between policy makers over the fiscal cliff, this seems unlikely as wrangling continues over the details.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 18.74 points, or 0.14 percent, at 13,233.23. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index <.spx> was down 0.84 points, or 0.06 percent, at 1,434.97. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 4.18 points, or 0.14 percent, at 3,040.18.</.ixic></.spx></.dji>


NYSE Euronext was the S&P 500′s top percentage gainer, surging 35 percent to $ 32.56 after IntercontinentalExchange Inc said it would buy the operator of the New York Stock Exchange for $ 8.2 billion. ICE shares rose 1.3 percent to $ 130.06.


Stocks rallied earlier in the week on signs of progress in the negotiations, led by banking and energy shares, which tend to outperform in times of economic expansion. On signs of complications, however, many have turned to hedging their bets through options and exchange-traded funds.


The U.S. economy grew 3.1 percent in the third quarter, faster than previously estimated, while the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected in the latest week.


“It is great to see this kind of growth, but investors know it could all disappear if there’s no deal on the cliff,” Schoenberger said. “Macro data may be on the back burner for a while.”


Existing home sales jumped 5.9 percent in November, more than expected, and by the fastest monthly place in three years. And the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s December index of business conditions in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region rose to 8.1 from -10.7 in November. Analysts were looking for a read of -3.


Google Inc agreed to sell set-top TV box maker Motorola Home to Arris Group Inc for $ 2.35 billion in cash and stock. Arris rose 6.6 percent to $ 15.51 while Google was little changed.


(Editing by Bernadette Baum)


Business News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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UBS in $1.5bn Libor rigging fine







Swiss banking giant UBS has agreed to pay $ 1.5bn (£940m) to US, UK and Swiss regulators for attempting to manipulate the Libor inter-bank lending rate.






It becomes the second major bank to be fined over Libor after Barclays was ordered to pay $ 450m to UK and US authorities in the summer.


Regulators worldwide are investigating a number of banks for rigging Libor.


Libor tracks the average rate at which the major international banks based in London lend money to each other.


The bank also admitted to manipulating Euribor and Tibor – the equivalent interest rates set by lenders in the eurozone and in Tokyo.


UBS said it had agreed to pay fines to regulators in three different countries:


It is the second-largest set of fines imposed on a bank to date, after the $ 1.9bn that HSBC agreed to pay US authorities earlier this month to settle allegations of money-laundering.


Continue reading the main story

Start Quote



The potential costs to [the banks] could be eye-watering if clients can prove they are out of pocket as a result of market rigging”



End Quote



The fine “demonstrates the co-ordinated approach regulators are now taking to serious conduct issues that affect jurisdictions internationally,” said Nick Matthews, a forensic accountant at consultancy Kinetic Partners.


The bank has also agreed to admit to committing wire fraud through its Tokyo office in the case of manipulating Libor rates for loans denominated in Japanese yen, among others.


It said it would seek a non-prosecution agreement with the DoJ covering the rest of the bank’s misbehaviour.


The fine is the latest blow for UBS, following the conviction of rogue trader Kweku Adoboli earlier this year for losing £1.4bn for the bank, a £500m settlement with US authorities for helping US citizens evade taxes.


UBS also suffered the worst losses of any bank from US sub-prime mortgages during the financial crisis, totalling 38bn, and necessitating a bailout from the Swiss authorities.


The bank still faces lawsuits in the US for mis-selling mortgage debt to other investors, including a $ 6.4bn claim by the US government-sponsored mortgage finance agencies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.


Trader collusion


UBS said the fines – along with other payouts for mis-selling mortgage debts in the US – were likely to result in the bank recording a loss of 2bn-2.5bn Swiss francs in its financial accounts for the last three months of the year, although it still expects to make a profit for the year as a whole.


Continue reading the main story

What is Libor?


  • Libor is the “London Inter-Bank Offered Rate”

  • It tracks the average interest rate at which the big international banks based in London are willing to lend to each other

  • The Libor rate is used to calculate payments under hundreds of trillions of dollars-worth of financial contracts, including mortgages and loans

  • Libor is set every day by the British Bankers’ Association, based on estimates submitted by a panel of a dozen or so banks of their borrowing costs

  • Banks are accused of lying about their real borrowing costs, in order to manipulate Libor for profit, and to make themselves look stronger during the financial crisis


The Swiss lender acknowledged its staff had manipulated the borrowing rates it submitted, which were then used to calculate the Libor rate – a benchmark interest rate that is used to calculate the payments on hundreds of trillions of dollars-worth of financial contracts – in order to make money on their trades.


According to the FSA, UBS had even gone so far as to give its traders formal responsibility for handling the bank’s submissions to the Libor-setting committee at the British Bankers’ Association – creating a direct conflict of interest, as the traders could profit depending on what they submitted.


Significantly, UBS also said its traders had colluded with their counterparts at other banks and brokerages.


The FSA said that UBS’s Tokyo office had made corrupt payments to brokerages – which helped to bring borrowers and lenders together anonymously in the inter-bank lending market – in order to enlist their support in manipulating Libor.


Besides UBS and Barclays, about a dozen other major banks are involved in setting Libor rates each day across a range of currencies, and most of them are understood to be still under investigation.


UBS chairman Axel Weber said: “The authorities have recognized UBS for the thoroughness of our investigation and our exceptional co-operation.”


According to the FSA, it would have fined UBS £200m, but gave the bank a 20% discount because it co-operated. Nonetheless, the £160m fine was still the largest ever imposed by the UK authority.


Barclays – which was the first bank to come clean over the scandal – has previously indicated that its fine of $ 450m would be overshadowed by the fines to be imposed on other culpable banks.


‘Not pretty reading’


Like Barclays, UBS also accepted that management had also told staff to submit inappropriately low estimated borrowing costs for the bank during the financial crisis, in order to give a false impression of the bank’s ability to borrow cheaply and maintain market confidence in the bank.


“We deeply regret this inappropriate and unethical behaviour,” said UBS chief executive Sergio Ermotti.


“No amount of profit is more important than the reputation of this firm, and we are committed to doing business with integrity.”




Former Schroders group managing director Philip Augar told BBC News that disadvantaged customers could take action against banks



The FSA said that the misconduct at UBS was extensive and widespread and involved at least 45 individuals.


“At least 2,000 requests for inappropriate submissions were documented – an unquantifiable number of oral requests, which by their nature would not be documented, were also made,” the FSA said.


“Manipulation was also discussed in internal open chat forums and group emails, and was widely known.”


It was so common that the FSA said every single Libor submission by UBS during the period it examined, from 2005 to 2010, may have been tainted.


“The findings we have set out in our notice today do not make for pretty reading,” said the FSA’s head of enforcement, Tracy McDermott.


Despite this, five separate internal audits by the bank’s compliance department failed to pick up on the misbehaviour.


BBC News – Business





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Newtown Fallout: Cerberus Retreats From Guns






While President Barack Obama and other Democratic politicians clear their throats about proposing new gun control laws sometime next year, the marketplace is responding swiftly to the Newtown, Conn., elementary school massacre.


Dick’s Sporting Goods, one of the largest retailers in its industry, said Tuesday it is suspending the sale of certain military-style semiautomatic rifles similar to the one used by the Newtown killer. Fox News reported that Discovery Channel has decided to cancel its popular reality show “American Guns.”






Less visible to consumers, but no less important, Cerberus, a $ 20 billion private-equity firm based in New York, announced overnight that, under pressure from the California teachers’ pension fund, it will sell its controlling stake in the country’s largest guns-and-ammo manufacturer, a conglomerate called Freedom Group. The semiautomatic rifle used to slaughter 26 people at Sandy Hook Elementary School, 20 of them children, was made by Bushmaster Firearms, one of the companies that operates under the Freedom Group umbrella.


The California State Teachers’ Retirement System, which has $ 751 million invested with Cerberus, said it would review its relationship with the private-equity firm “given the tragic events last Friday in Newtown, Conn.” Cerberus then followed with its announcement, saying that unloading Freedom Group “allows us to meet our obligations to the investors whose interests we are entrusted to protect without being drawn into the national debate” on gun control.


Bloomberg TV’s Tom Keene asked me this morning on his “Surveillance” program whether this the beginning of something akin to the divestment campaign aimed at breaking South Africa’s apartheid system. That’s a provocative question. The answer is probably no, and the reasons shed light on the nature of the American gun market.


Gun ownership in the United States is not apartheid. Millions of Americans relish firearms and use them for lawful hunting, shooting sports, and self-defense. To many people, guns represent individualism and self-reliance. The Supreme Court has interpreted the Second Amendment as protecting an individual right to keep a handgun in the home. Forty-nine states allow their citizens to carry guns concealed in public. A federal appeals court recently said that the sole holdout, Illinois, violated the Second Amendment by prohibiting concealed carry.


The $ 2 billion American gun industry is not the South African economy. The gun market historically has been fragmented and made up of relatively small companies. It consolidated in recent years, driven largely by Cerberus buying companies such as Bushmaster (and Remington, Marlin, and Para USA) in hopes of squeezing redundancies from their operations and selling off the roll-up in an IPO. To Cerberus’ frustration, the initial private offering had stalled for reasons having nothing to do with Newtown. (Finding efficiencies and cross-marketing opportunities turned out to be more difficult than the private-equity gurus anticipated.) Now, Cerberus will use the cover of renewed controversy over gun control–and the suddenly shocked sensibilities of the California teachers pension-fund managers (from whom Freedom Group presumably had not been kept secret)–to dump a guns-and-ammo play that wasn’t working out smoothly.


There are personal elements to the move, as well. Stephen Feinberg, who founded Cerberus in 1992, and is an avid hunter and gun enthusiast. His father, Martin Feinberg, lives in Newtown and told Bloomberg News the shooting was “devastating.”


Cerberus’ move and the prospect that the companies within Freedom Group will get sold off individually or in small clumps will return the fractious gun industry to something closer to what it looked like a half-dozen years ago. Smith & Wesson (SWHC) and Sturm Ruger (RGR), the two publicly traded gun makers in the U.S., will stand a little larger in relative terms. Glock, Beretta, and Taurus will continue to import guns from, respectively, Austria, Italy, and Brazil (as well as assemble weapons in their U.S. plants). And overall, gun makers will likely enjoy increased sales over the next six to 12 months, as consumers buy additional pistols and rifles out of fear that their favorites might be more difficult to obtain if Democrats succeed in pushing through new restrictions.


There will be additional post-Newtown reaction from retailers and from Hollywood. Wal-Mart (WMT) is a major gun seller. It accounts for about 13 percent of Freedom Group’s sales, for example. The world’s biggest retail chain will doubtless come under pressure from anti-gun activists to curb its firearms sales, and the image-conscious company may follow its more specialized rival Dick’s.


In the entertainment world, the cable channel TLC has already delayed airing a show called “Best Funeral Ever.” Violent movie trailers might get postponed or edited. The massacre during a showing of The Dark Knight Rises in Aurora (Colo.) in July prompted Warner Bros. to pull the trailer for the forthcoming Gangster Squad, which showed a theater shooting. Later the studio cut the scene entirely.


Whether marketplace behavior will change over the long haul is a different question. Gangster Squad‘s opening was delayed but not cancelled. The film, pitting organized crime killers against police in Depression-era Los Angeles, is now slated to begin in theaters next month, and it will still include plenty of gunplay.


Businessweek.com — Top News





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Japan’s Nikkei outperforms as opposition wins big






LONDON (AP) — Japanese shares outperformed all others Monday amid hopes that the new government will enact fresh stimulus measures to boost the world’s third-largest economy.


Signs that U.S. politicians are inching toward a budget deal helped Wall Street open stronger than earlier predicted and shored up European markets after a bad morning.






The standout index was Japan‘s Nikkei 225, which closed up 0.9 percent at 9,828.88, its highest level since April, after the country’s Liberal Democratic Party swept back into power at weekend elections with a landslide victory.


Party chief Shinzo Abe, who is in line to become prime minister, favors increased spending on public works and setting a 3 percent economic growth target. He’s also expected to lobby for stronger action by the central bank to get Japan out of its deflationary trap.


“Japanese equities rallied today on the back of a resounding victory by Shinzo Abe‘s LDP, giving them a mandate to boost economic growth through more aggressive fiscal and monetary easing,” said Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor.


Expectations of further stimulus in Japan, despite the country’s sky-high debt levels and doubts over the effectiveness of looser economic policy, further weighed on the yen. The dollar was 0.4 percent higher at $ 83.73 yen.


The yen’s recent weakness is a potential boon to the country’s powerhouse exporters. Automaker Nissan Motor Co. rose 1.8 percent, Sony Corp. climbed 1.4 percent and Panasonic Corp jumped 2.3 percent.


Elsewhere, markets remained largely beholden to developments over the U.S. budget. The concern is whether the White House and Congress will agree a budget deal in time to avoid the “fiscal cliff” of automatic tax increases and spending cuts at the start of next year.


In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was down 0.4 percent at 5,896 while Germany’s DAX fell 0.1 percent to 7,590. The CAC-40 in France was 0.3 percent lower at 3,631.


In the U.S., the Dow Jones industrial average was up 0.5 percent at 13,194 while the broader S&P 500 index rose the same rate to 1,421.


Though the budget measures associated with the “fiscal cliff” would not all be introduced at once and the Republicans have indicated a willingness to increase taxes on households earning over $ 1 million, investors won’t breathe easily until a deal is signed, sealed and delivered.


“Investors have so far remained hopeful that an agreement can be reached in a sufficiently timely manner,” said Nick Bennenbroek, an analyst at Wells Fargo Bank. “However, with a year-end deadline for a deal now looming closer, those budget developments should become increasingly important through the end of December.”


In recent weeks, the dollar had suffered, at least against the euro, due to the U.S. budget fears. On Monday, the currencies were steady, with the euro up 0.1 percent at $ 1.3165.


Oil markets were subdued too, with the price of benchmark New York crude up 27 cents at $ 87 a barrel.


Elsewhere in Asia, China’s shares fared fairly well as its new leaders promised more spending if needed to underpin a wobbly economic recovery. Those hopes helped the Shanghai Composite to rise 0.4 percent to 2,160.34 and the smaller Shenzhen Composite index to end 0.4 percent higher to 819.58.


On Sunday, China’s new Communist Party leaders under party General Secretary Xi Jinping pledged a “proactive fiscal policy” and “prudent monetary policy” in a statement carried by the official Xinhua News Agency. They were references to the willingness to boost spending if needed and keep credit easy so long as inflation stays low.


Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.6 percent to 1,983.07 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.4 percent at 22,513.61.


Economy News Headlines – Yahoo! News





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Cinnabon in Tripoli: Libya Opens Up to Foreign Business






After 42 years, the country formerly known as the Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya is getting its first taste of consumer capitalism in an unlikely form: sweet, sticky cinnamon rolls. Cinnabon, the Atlanta-based bakery chain, is at the vanguard of a potential business boom in the North African country, which deposed dictator Muammar Qaddafi last year in a bloody civil war. In July the unit of Focus Brands became the first U.S. franchise to open since the revolution, with a two-level Tripoli outlet. It’s become a popular destination in a city with few diversions for residents.


7aca0  comp cinnabon51  01  405 Cinnabon in Tripoli: Libya Opens Up to Foreign BusinessThe shop on Tripoli’s version of Fifth Avenue






Cinnabon’s bet on Libya—it plans to open at least 10 new locations over the next five years—shows the perils and potential of this wealthy new consumer market, which is being eyed by a growing number of foreign companies. Yes, Libya has a rickety electricity grid and few formal property rights. And due to ongoing sectarian violence, it remains a dangerous place. But the country sits atop Africa’s biggest oil reserves, which may generate as much as $ 55 billion for the state oil company this year. That means there are plenty of well-off locals and expats who can afford to pay for a Western-style sweet.


7aca0  comp cinnabon51  01  202 Cinnabon in Tripoli: Libya Opens Up to Foreign BusinessPhoto illustration by 731; Photograph by Getty Images


The country is a less incongruous place for Cinnabon than one might expect. Syrupy treats like baklava are beloved in Libya, as in other Arab countries, so local palates are ready-made for the chain, explains Mike Shattuck, president of Focus Brands International. What’s more, in a Muslim country where bars are almost nonexistent, young people need places to hang out. Finally, an influx of investment from Persian Gulf property developers means “down the road there’s no question there will be a big mall culture,” providing the natural habitat for future Cinnabon outlets.


For now the Tripoli store is very much a foreign oddity. Positioned as more upscale than the chain’s food court roots in the U.S., the shop has become a fixture on Gargaresh Road, Libya’s Fifth Avenue, where it attracts an affluent clientele. The prices are First World as well: A cinnamon bun and a regular coffee cost 6.50 dinars, or about $ 5.15, close to the price in the U.S.


The franchise owners, brothers Arief and Ahmed Swaidek, first planned to open Cinnabon in 2008, but bureaucracy delayed completion of the store until January 2011. A splashy grand opening was abandoned when revolution broke out that February. Nonetheless, news of the shop spread quickly after its opening this July.


On a recent evening the store was busy with young customers, about two-thirds of them women, who tend to avoid the traditionally male-dominated coffeehouses. Unlike at most Western restaurants, all of the staff are male. In addition to the chain’s signature pastries, it serves Carvel ice cream (another Focus Brands product), sandwiches, salads, and cakes. An upstairs lounge caters to patrons who want to linger, and the shop stays open until about 11 p.m. to accommodate the local preference for late-night snacking. All that activity can push Libya’s patchy infrastructure to the limit: The utility in Tripoli can’t always cope with two floors of full-blast air conditioning. The franchise relied on a generator to keep things cool during the busy Ramadan season, says store manager Ehab Abdelo-Meged.


7aca0  comp cinnabon51  02  202 Cinnabon in Tripoli: Libya Opens Up to Foreign Business


Serving Middle Eastern customers isn’t new for Cinnabon, whose portfolio of 900 worldwide locations includes outlets in Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt. It also has experience operating in less-than-salubrious locales such as Pakistan and El Salvador. Still, Libya presents particular challenges. Security in Tripoli is shaky. In August, Salafi Muslim militants demolished a downtown mosque of the more moderate Sufi sect with bulldozers. Libya has yet to charge anyone with the murders of U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens and three of his officials, killed when the Benghazi consulate was stormed in September. Kidnappings, including that of the head of Libya’s Olympic Committee in July, are a fact of life. And gunfire can be heard most nights in the capital.


Shattuck points to more mundane concerns, such as sourcing ingredients (the majority are imported from the U.S. on a quarterly basis) and finding a reliable way to pay suppliers in a country that still lacks a modern banking system. “There are a lot of institutional needs still, from our perspective. But we feel things are moving in the right direction,” he says.


Others are optimistic as well. Companies from France Télécom (FTE) to Qatar National Bank (QNRK) are looking to invest in Libya as Prime Minister Ali Zaidan’s new government plans to kick-start asset sales, privatize state companies, and break up monopolies. “I’m 10 times more bullish on Libya than I was at the end of 2010,” says Abdulla Boulsien, a former Merrill Lynch (BAC) investment banker who helps run Tuareg Capital, a Libya-focused private equity firm. So Cinnabon is unlikely to be the sole refuge for Libyans craving an American-style dining experience for long. “It’s a virgin land,” manager Abdelo-Meged says of the country. “Any franchise coming here will be a success.”


The bottom line: Libya, with 6 million citizens and $ 55 billion in state oil revenue this year, is attracting Western investments like Tripoli’s new Cinnabon cafe.


Businessweek.com — Top News


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UBS faces $1.6 billion fine over Libor rigging: paper






ZURICH (Reuters) – UBS faces a fine of 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($ 1.63 billion) to settle interest rate rigging charges, a Swiss newspaper reported on Saturday.


Citing unnamed sources, Tages-Anzeiger daily said the bank would admit 36 traders around the globe manipulated yen Libor between 2005 and 2010. A UBS spokesman declined to comment.






People familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday UBS could reach a $ 1-billion-plus settlement and admit to criminal wrongdoing by its Japanese arm, where one of its traders manipulated yen Libor and euroyen contracts.


Between 25 and 30 people have left UBS over the matter, the sources said. The Swiss bank had hoped for a softer touch from regulators by cooperating in industry-wide probes and was surprised by the size of the expected settlement, they added.


A 1.5 billion franc settlement would be the biggest ever paid by the bank, recovering from a $ 2.3-billion trading fraud by London-based trader Kweku Adoboli for which it was fined 30 million pounds ($ 48.36 million) last month.


A settlement would make UBS the second major bank to be sanctioned for its role in the Libor scandal. Britain’s Barclays paid a $ 450 million fine in June.


Libor is the rate used as a benchmark for pricing trillions of dollars worth of financial instruments and contracts around the globe. Tiny shifts in the rate, compiled from daily polls of bankers, could benefit dealers in complex products.


HEADING FOR LOSS


Tages-Anzeiger said the fine, together with restructuring charges of 500 million francs from plans to cut 10,000 staff as UBS winds down its fixed income business, would probably push the bank to a fourth-quarter loss.


UBS had already said costs related to the investment banking overhaul would lead to a fourth-quarter and full-year loss after it posted a third-quarter net loss of 2.172 billion francs. It is due to publish full-year results on February 5.


By admitting to a charge against its Japanese subsidiary, UBS would stop short of admitting wrongdoing at a group level, which could be fatal for a bank as it could lose its license.


Chairman Axel Weber, who joined UBS this year after stepping down as head of the German central bank, has been on a whirlwind diplomatic tour over the probe, the Tages-Anzeiger reported.


Swiss newspapers noted that Mark Branson, now responsible for overseeing big banks for Swiss financial markets regulator Finma, was chief executive of UBS Japan at the time of the alleged rate rigging.


A Finma spokesman said Branson had removed himself from Finma’s investigation into Libor to avoid any appearance of conflict of interest but declined to comment further.


In 2009, UBS paid $ 780 million to settle a messy U.S. investigation into tax evasion by admitting it had helped wealthy Americans evade and cheat on their taxes. ($ 1 = 0.9218 Swiss francs) ($ 1 = 0.6204 British pounds)


(Reporting by Emma Thomasson; editing by Jason Webb)


Business News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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